class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ #
Deactivation Experiments: Measuring the Causal Impacts of WhatsApp Usage
] .author[ ### Tiago Ventura and Joshua Tucker ] .date[ ###
Comppit FGV Roundtable 2025 - June 2nd, 2025
We gratefully acknowledge funding from McCourt School’s Tech and Policy Program and Project Liberty’s Institute for this project. ] --- layout: true <div class="my-footer"><span>Tiago Ventura (Georgetown University)                                               Comppit FGV Roundtable 2025</span></div> --- class: middle ## Research Agenda .content-box-gray[Understand information consumption via messaging apps, and identify causal effects of **.red[WhatsApp Usage]** on **.red[political]** and **.red[non-political]** attitudes.] --- class:middle ## Papers <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248zm-448 0c0-110.5 89.5-200 200-200s200 89.5 200 200-89.5 200-200 200S56 366.5 56 256zm72 20v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h116v-67c0-10.7 12.9-16 20.5-8.5l99 99c4.7 4.7 4.7 12.3 0 17l-99 99c-7.6 7.6-20.5 2.2-20.5-8.5v-67H140c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12z"></path></svg> Misinformation Beyond Traditional Feeds: Evidence from a WhatsApp Deactivation Experiment in Brazil (With Rajeshwari Majumdar, Jonathan Nagler, and Joshua A. Tucker), Forthcoming Journal of Politics <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248zm-448 0c0-110.5 89.5-200 200-200s200 89.5 200 200-89.5 200-200 200S56 366.5 56 256zm72 20v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h116v-67c0-10.7 12.9-16 20.5-8.5l99 99c4.7 4.7 4.7 12.3 0 17l-99 99c-7.6 7.6-20.5 2.2-20.5-8.5v-67H140c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12z"></path></svg> Reducing WhatsApp Usage to Mitigate Misinformation Exposure During Elections: Evidence from a Multi-Country Experiment (With Rajeshwari Majumdar, Shelley Liu, Carolina Torreblanca, and Joshua A. Tucker) (Working Paper) --- class: middle ### Multimedia Deactivation Experiment in Brazil, 2022 -- <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248zm-448 0c0-110.5 89.5-200 200-200s200 89.5 200 200-89.5 200-200 200S56 366.5 56 256zm72 20v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h116v-67c0-10.7 12.9-16 20.5-8.5l99 99c4.7 4.7 4.7 12.3 0 17l-99 99c-7.6 7.6-20.5 2.2-20.5-8.5v-67H140c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12z"></path></svg> **Problem**: Fully deactivating WhatsApp is neither possible nor ideal -- <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248zm-448 0c0-110.5 89.5-200 200-200s200 89.5 200 200-89.5 200-200 200S56 366.5 56 256zm72 20v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h116v-67c0-10.7 12.9-16 20.5-8.5l99 99c4.7 4.7 4.7 12.3 0 17l-99 99c-7.6 7.6-20.5 2.2-20.5-8.5v-67H140c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12z"></path></svg> **Partial Deactivation:** Offer respondents a monetary incentive to - Disable their automatic download of media on WhatsApp - Do not purposefully click and watch any media on WhatsApp -- <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248zm-448 0c0-110.5 89.5-200 200-200s200 89.5 200 200-89.5 200-200 200S56 366.5 56 256zm72 20v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h116v-67c0-10.7 12.9-16 20.5-8.5l99 99c4.7 4.7 4.7 12.3 0 17l-99 99c-7.6 7.6-20.5 2.2-20.5-8.5v-67H140c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12z"></path></svg> **Mechanism:** Cut the primary channels through which users are exposed to misinformation and polarizing content: videos, images and audios .midgrey[(Machado et al., 2019; Resende et al., 2019; Garimella and Tyson, 2018; Garimella and Eckles, 2020; Batista Pereira et al., 2023).] -- <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248zm-448 0c0-110.5 89.5-200 200-200s200 89.5 200 200-89.5 200-200 200S56 366.5 56 256zm72 20v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h116v-67c0-10.7 12.9-16 20.5-8.5l99 99c4.7 4.7 4.7 12.3 0 17l-99 99c-7.6 7.6-20.5 2.2-20.5-8.5v-67H140c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12z"></path></svg> **Treatment Period:** Three weeks: - **Start:** Three weeks before general election in Brazil. - **End:** three days after the voting day. -- --- class:middle, center, inverse # Overview of the Experiment --- class:middle .center[ <img src="output/output/research_design.png" width="120%" /> ] --- ### Treatment Media Intervention & Compliance .pull-left[ .center[ #### Intervention: Adding Friction <img src="output_mpsa/ss_tmedia_examplereal_dlpre.png" width="60%" /> ] ] .pull-left[ .center[ #### Compliance: Monitoring Behavior <img src="output_mpsa/ss_tmedia_networkusage.jpeg" width="60%" /> ] ] --- class: center, middle, inverse # Pre-Registered Results --- ### First-Stage Results .center[ <img src="output/output/models_compliance.png" width="90%" /> ] --- class: middle ### Exposure to and Belief in News Headlines - Participants are shown 8 news headlines; asked (a) whether they have seen this news before & (b) whether they think the news is true - Four headlines are true news; four are misinformation stories - Count how many (a) recalled & (b) accurately identified as T/F --- ### Effects on Exposure to Misinformation Rumors .center[ <img src="output/output/exposure_h1.png" width="90%" /> ] --- ### Reduction in exposure is large for false news .center[ <img src="output/output/difference_true_false_exposure.png" width="90%" /> ] --- ### Effects on Belief Accuracy .center[ <img src="output/output/belief_accuracy_h2.png" width="90%" /> ] --- class:middle ## Downstream Effects: Measuring Polarization - Participants are asked about their feelings towards with voters of two main Presidential Candidates (Lula and Bolsonaro) -- Affective Polarization - We also ask their willingness to engage with voters from these candidates -- Social Polarization - And their agreement across several policy issues salient in the election -- Ideological Polarization --- class:middle ## Downstream consequences on political polarization .center[ Can this short-term reduction in exposure to political misinformation change political attitudes and reduce polarization? ] -- .center[ **Not quite.** ] --- ### Effects on Polarization .center[ <img src="output/output/pol_outcomes.png" width="90%" /> ] --- class:inverse, center, middle # Additional Results --- ### Exposure and Partisanship .center[ <img src="output/output/sif_exposure_bothparties_counter_pro.png" width="90%" /> ] --- ### Belief Accuracy Conditional on WhatsApp usage for Politics .center[ <img src="output/output/sif_het_use_whatsapp_fac.png" width="90%" /> ] --- class: middle ## Discussion <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248zm-448 0c0-110.5 89.5-200 200-200s200 89.5 200 200-89.5 200-200 200S56 366.5 56 256zm72 20v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h116v-67c0-10.7 12.9-16 20.5-8.5l99 99c4.7 4.7 4.7 12.3 0 17l-99 99c-7.6 7.6-20.5 2.2-20.5-8.5v-67H140c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12z"></path></svg> **WhatsApp is an important vector through which voters receive misinformation in Brazil at .red[a higher rate] compared to true news.** <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248zm-448 0c0-110.5 89.5-200 200-200s200 89.5 200 200-89.5 200-200 200S56 366.5 56 256zm72 20v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h116v-67c0-10.7 12.9-16 20.5-8.5l99 99c4.7 4.7 4.7 12.3 0 17l-99 99c-7.6 7.6-20.5 2.2-20.5-8.5v-67H140c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12z"></path></svg> **The null results provide support for a .red[minimalist view of the short-term causal effects] of exposure to misinformation on WhatsApp on political attitudes.** <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248zm-448 0c0-110.5 89.5-200 200-200s200 89.5 200 200-89.5 200-200 200S56 366.5 56 256zm72 20v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h116v-67c0-10.7 12.9-16 20.5-8.5l99 99c4.7 4.7 4.7 12.3 0 17l-99 99c-7.6 7.6-20.5 2.2-20.5-8.5v-67H140c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12z"></path></svg> **Exposure to misinformation .red[does not] mechanically affect attitudes** <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248zm-448 0c0-110.5 89.5-200 200-200s200 89.5 200 200-89.5 200-200 200S56 366.5 56 256zm72 20v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h116v-67c0-10.7 12.9-16 20.5-8.5l99 99c4.7 4.7 4.7 12.3 0 17l-99 99c-7.6 7.6-20.5 2.2-20.5-8.5v-67H140c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12z"></path></svg> **Limitation:** single-country, low-powered study: effects are likely larger among subgroups more exposure to misinformation, and vary contextually. --- class: middle ### Multi-Country Deactivation Experiment - **Problem**: Single country studies have limited power to speak of contextual effects (and in our case, limited statistical power) - **Summary**: Multicountry extension across three major Global South countries; Brazil, India and South Africa - **Stronger Treatment**: Replicate Multimedia Deactivation + Time Reduction - **More statistical power and external validity**: ~ 2500 participants across the three countries. --- class:middle ### Multi-Country WhatsApp Partial Deactivation Experiment -- - **Design:** Partial Deactivation -> Friction + Incentive to reduce usage: - **Media Treatment**: Disable their automatic download of media on WhatsApp, and do not purposefully click and watch any media on WhatsApp; - **Time Treatment:** Add time limit for WhatsApp usage per day + Limit Usage to 5min per day; -- - **Duration:** - **Treatment**: Change settings and behavior for 4 weeks (one month) leading up to election in three countries - **Control**: Change ONLY behavior for 3 days. -- - **Multicountry Design:** selected some of the largest Global South countries having democratic elections in 2024. - India: **General Election** Spring 2024 - South Africa: **Presidential Election** Spring 2024 - Brazil: **Local Election** Fall 2024 -- --- class:middle, center, inverse # Experimental Design --- class: middle <img src="output/design.png" width="100%" /> - Participants enrolled: 2426 (678 in India, 820 in South Africa, and 928 in Brazil) - Final Sample: 2220 (653 in India, 742 in South Africa, and 825 in Brazil) --- class:middle ### Treatment Time - Intervention & Compliance .pull-left[ .center[ #### Intervention: Adding Friction <img src="output/time-limite.png" width="55%" /> ] ] .pull-right[ .center[ #### Compliance: Monitoring Behavior <img src="output_mpsa/ss_ttime_actualsubject_lightmode.png" width="60%" /> ] ] --- class:middle ### Treatment: Media Intervention & Compliance .pull-left[ .center[ #### Intervention: Adding Friction <img src="output_mpsa/ss_tmedia_examplereal_dlpre.png" width="60%" /> ] ] .pull-left[ .center[ #### Compliance: Monitoring Behavior <img src="output_mpsa/ss_tmedia_networkusage.jpeg" width="60%" /> ] ] --- class:middle, inverse, center # Results --- class:middle ## Exposure of Rumors and True News Limiting WhatsApp usage reduces exposure to misinformation & news <img src="output_mpsa/recall.png" width="90%" /> --- class: middle ## Belief Accuracy A short-term reduction in exposure does not translate to changes in accuracy judgments <img src="output_mpsa/accuracy.png" width="90%" /> --- class: middle ## Uncivil content more broadly Using several different items, we find that limiting WhatsApp usage also reduces exposure to online incivility and low-quality political discourse <img src="output_mpsa/others_info.png" width="90%" /> --- class: middle ### Downstream consequences on political polarization <img src="output_mpsa/political_left.png" width="90%" /> --- class: middle ### Are these nulls effects consistent with other studies? -- **Yes**. Other studies with changes in consumption, but nulls on political attitudes: - Multimedia whatsapp deactivation in Brazil, 2022 election .midgrey[(Ventura et al., 2025)] - Recent Facebook/Instagram deactivation experiment in US and France .midgrey[(Allcott et al., 2024, Arceunaux et al., 2024)] - Changing Facebook feed to chronological instead of algorithmic .midgrey[(Guess et al., 2023)] - Removing re-shares from people's Facebook News Feed .midgrey[(Guess et al., 2024)] - Installing a browser to signal when people are navigating on low-quality news websites .midgrey[(Aslett et al., 2022)] - And experiments incentivizing participants to take a "news vacation" for two weeks .midgrey[(Wojcieszak et al., 2022)] -- --- class: middle, center ### Downstream consequences on Non-Political Attitudes and Substitutes Using several well-being items, we find that limiting WhatsApp usage makes participants feel better (happier, less anxious, less concerned about others) -- **This occurs alongside increased offline activity.** -- --- class: middle, center <img src="output/itt_cov_substitution.png" width="90%" /> --- class:middle ## Key Takeaways -- - WhatsApp is an important channel through which voters receive misinformation and news in major Global South democracies -- - Reduced exposure to such information does not mechanically affect accuracy perceptions -- - In the context of elections, WhatsApp also increases exposure to toxic content and uncivil political discussions -- - ...none of this change meaningfully political attitudes (at least not within a short electoral period) -- - Yet limiting WhatsApp usage **also** improves overall subjective well-being, and these effects are associated with higher time spent on offline activities. -- --- class:center, inverse, middle # Thank you!